Nouriel Roubini tells the Yalta meeting what factors will determine the development of the economy over the next five years
Over the next five years, global economic development will be determined by four key trends that have already emerged. This was the topic of the speech the world-renowned economic analyst, Professor of the Leonard Stern School of Business, Nouriel Roubini, gave to the 10th Annual Meeting of the Yalta European Strategy “Changing Ukraine in a Changing World: Factors of Success”.
Over the next five years, global economic development will be determined by four key trends that have already emerged. This was the topic of the speech the world-renowned economic analyst, Professor of the Leonard Stern School of Business, Nouriel Roubini, gave to the 10th Annual Meeting of the Yalta European Strategy “Changing Ukraine in a Changing World: Factors of Success”.
In his view, the first thing to consider is an interest rate increase. Despite the fact that the USA is still maintaining a crisis strategy of keeping interest rates at an artificially low level, very soon there will be a rate increase in all the major economies of the world.
“This will be the result of the stabilization policy”, said Roubini. “The era of zero interest rates is coming to an end, and very soon the fund raising process will be moving in the opposite direction.”
The second thing we have to consider is the slowdown of the Chinese economy, which will lead to a change in the economic model in China. According to Roubini’s forecast, the growth indicators in China will drop from last year's 10-11 percent to 7.5 percent this year, and by 2015 they will have dropped down to an annual average of 6 percent.
A third factor is the continuing economic and financial risks in the Eurozone. “Despite the fact that the threat of a collapse and the withdrawal of Greece and Italy has lessened, the European economies remain fragile. The weak growth, the anaemic economy, and the issues of competitiveness are unresolved”, he said of Europe.
The final factor affecting economic development over the next few years is the change in the balance of supply and demand in the energy sector. The balance will change under the influence of shale gas deposit development in many countries, particularly in the USA and the Latin America. The demand for energy resources is growing. However, the situation in Syria, Iran, Libya, and Egypt will change the current state of affairs. “The reality of geopolitical “noises” will remain influential in the energy market”, Roubini predicts. “And the energy price will rise even more than has been previously predicted.”
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Yalta European Strategy (YES) is the largest social institution of public diplomacy in Eastern Europe, providing an open and equal dialogue on global issues affecting the European Union, Ukraine, Russia and other countries. This non-partisan organisation was established in 2004 by the Ukrainian businessman and public figure Victor Pinchuk.
The YES Annual Meetings held in Yalta’s Livadia Palace have become an open platform to discuss and look for new ideas and views on paths to European, Ukrainian and global development. Every year these meetings bring together over 200 politicians, diplomats, statesmen, journalists, analysts and business leaders from more than 20 countries. The dialogue on global challenges broadens the vision on the situation inside Ukraine and the prospects for the country’s development in the modern world. It is also an incentive to find common ground between countries, common interests and values.
At the YES Annual Meetings the world's top opinion leaders present their visions of current and future trends which impact all spheres of life of society. In 2010, 2011 and 2012 the events were opened by Presidents Viktor Yanukovych, Bronislaw Komorowski, Shimon Peres and Prime Minister of the Republic of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. YES Annual Meetings key speakers have included Mykola Azarov, Kofi Annan, Egemen Bagis, Carl Bildt, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Richard Branson, James Wolfensohn, Newt Gingrich, Robert Zoellick, Bill Clinton, Paul Krugman, Leonid Kuchma, Yuri Milner, Condoleezza Rice, Lawrence Summers, Radoslaw Sikorski, Javier Solana, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Shashi Tharoor, Strobe Talbott, Niall Ferguson, Joschka Fischer, Stefan Fule, Gerhard Schroeder, Muhammad Yunus and many others.
Official website: www.yes-ukraine.org
Victor Pinchuk Foundation is an international, private and non-partisan philanthropic foundation based in Ukraine. It was established in 2006 by businessman and public figure Victor Pinchuk. Its goal is to empower future generations to become the change-makers of tomorrow. To achieve this, projects are developed and partnerships are built in Ukraine and worldwide.
in people, to boost human capital;
in society, to promote social responsibility;
in the world, to foster a more integrated world.
The projects of the Victor Pinchuk Foundation include, among others: the network of neonatal centers Cradles of Hope, the largest private scholarship programme in Ukraine, Zavtra.UA, the WorldWideStudies scholarship programme for Ukrainian students studying abroad, the centre for contemporary art PinchukArtCentre with its biannual prizes Future Generation Art Prize and PinchukArtCentre Prize. The foundation also hosts the Davos Philanthropic Roundtable and Davos Ukrainian Lunch organized each year at the occasion of the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum and supports the international network YES (Yalta European Strategy) to foster Ukraine’s European and global integration, as well as a startup online platform for fostering philanthropy in Ukraine, the Philanthropic Marketplace. The Foundation is a member of the European Foundation Centre and the Ukrainian Grantmakers Forum. It cooperates with the Clinton Global Initiative, the Brookings Institution, the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the Peres Center for Peace, the Tony Blair Faith Foundation, and other nongovernmental organizations.
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