The Second Day Summary of the 20th YES Annual Meeting – THE NECESSITY TO WIN

The 20th Annual Meeting of Yalta European Strategy (YES) - THE NECESSITY TO WIN was held on September 13 – 14, 2024 in Kyiv. Over 700 leading politicians, diplomats, businessmen, servicemen of the armed forces of Ukraine, veterans, civil activists, and experts, from more than 30 countries, took part in the conference organised by YES, in partnership with the Victor Pinchuk Foundation.

During the second day of the YES meeting, speakers and participants discussed topics including: Ukraine’s victory - What does it mean for Europe, Ukraine’s Internal Challenges, Who is Winning? Who has More Time? News from the Front, The Future of the US-Ukraine relationship, Global Axis of Evil – Do we have a Strategy?, Will the US Support Ukraine in One Year’s Time? and For Humankind’s Survival, Does Ukraine Matter? 

In the opening session of the second day of the 20th YES annual meeting, the Financial Times’ Gillian Tett spoke to Ukrainian Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal, about what a Ukrainian victory would mean for Europe and the rest of the world. 

Denys Shmyhal said: “Due to emphasis on innovations, on digitalization and well-developed military-and-industrial complex, Ukraine will "or sure become a big systemic part of the European weaponry market and, what is most important, of European security. Ukraine today is a factor of the future security in the world and future security in Europe.”

Speaking about how to end the Russian aggression on Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal said, “It is always better to make a deal than lose lives. But unfortunately, the terrorists are not capable of making honest deals, we have over ten years’ experience of this. We understand we can only negotiate peace around a large table and from the Ukrainian peace formula. We cannot cede territory. It is not acceptable to our people. The history of the world shows that countries that fight for their freedom always win. Eventually we will win – this is what lasting peace and the protection of new world order looks like.” 

During a second panel entitled, ‘Ukraine’s Internal Challenges’, Andriy Pyshnyy, Governor, National Bank of Ukraine, Ruslan Stefanchuk, Chairman of Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Andrii Kostin, Prosecutor General of Ukraine and German Galushchenko, Minister of Energy of Ukraine, discussed budgets, international support and trust indexes. 

Andriy Pyshnyy said: «International partners' help was the key factor that allowed to stabilize Ukraine's situation as the economy that has lost a third of the GDP, the biggest migration flow since WWII, the energy terror, and the ongoing war are inconceivable challenges. However, it should be also noted that our economic sustainability is not one institution's result, this is a result of interaction. This is a result of interaction between the National Bank and the Government of Ukraine, the result of actions of the President, of Ukraine's business, the result of our realization of a very important thing:  macrofinancial stability is the goal, but at the same time this is our common  resource due to which we are capable of building the entirely different, as for their quality, relations with international financial partners. The stable situation in Ukraine is the result of our common interaction."

German Galushchenko told the audience, “Losses in our energy sector started in 2014. And as a result of massive attacks since March 2024, taking into account the destroyed capacities and assets left in the occupied territory, losses amount to about 50% (9 GW of capacity with a peak consumption of 18 GW last winter). We have huge losses. The drones used by the enemy to strike our energy system make it difficult to recover quickly. We had planned an energy transition by 2045-2050, but constant attacks are forcing us to accelerate the process of implementing these plans.’

Talking about public trust in the Ukrainian cabinet, Ruslan Stefanchuk said, “ On 24 February 2022, we were in a unique position. Our President became the leader of the people in war time. All of our politicians stayed in the country and the people supported the leadership.  No other European country has had this experience for more than 70 years. This is an experience that you cannot read in books. The level of support for Ukraine was at its highest then and it is hard to go through such trust indexes. We still have high levels of trust compared to other  EU countries.”

Roksolana Pidlasa,  Chairman of the budget committee of the Verkhovna Rada, noted: “Just one day of war costs Ukraine $140 million. Just one day. This is on top of the assistance in kind that we receive from our partners. I am not sure that people abroad realize that Ukraine is carrying this burden on its own. We have no direct financial help from abroad to pay salaries to the military and help to the wounded.  In 2022, when the full-scale invasion began, our budget expenditures increased twofold overnight. This has created a huge gap over the three years. s. This budget deficit is not just statistics, this is Ukrainians' lives.  The finances help IDPs, they support doctors and teachers salaries and rebuild of homes destroyed by russian bombs."

During the panel discussion, ‘Who is Winning? Who has More Time?’, moderated by Zanny Minton Beddoes, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist, Rustem Umerov, Minister of Defence of Ukraine, talked about Ukraine’s recent offensive in Kursk, saying, “We know Russia is going to form new brigades, ~400K people by the end of the year, and has plans to start operations in the North, North-East. For this reason, we needed to start a new mobilisation. We have dealt with Kharkiv, we did not allow them inside Ukraine, we saw they wanted to create a buffer zone between Kharkiv and Belarus border. We did not allow them to create a buffer zone, we have pushed them 700km from our border, and we have shown that if you come to us, we will punch back.”

Major General Christian Freuding, Director Joint Planning and Command Staff, Ministry of Defence, Federal Republic of Germany, praised the Ukrainian military for its well-planned, well-implemented, Kursk offensive, saying, “When we compare the situation, we had a kind of stalemate on the front. If there is a situation like this a military commander will try to find out how he can move even if it means taking a calculated risk. Ukrainians are very aware of what they are doing, there is risk in the Kursk offensive, but there are advantages as well, it was properly planned, broke the stalemate and we keep everything crossed it will be successful. It was well done, and we will see how it continues.”

General David Petraeus, Partner and Chairman of the Global Institute, KKR, agreed, saying, “The operation in Kursk is extraordinarily impressive, orchestrated well, it was a complete surprise, Ukraine found the soft underbelly of the Russians and exposed how inadequate the security forces there are. Now they’re developing the situation, a good military tactic, which they’ve also done on the Black Sea. How does a country with no navy sink a third of the mighty Russian fleet on the Black Sea? Ukraine has demonstrated extraordinary capability.  In terms of seizing the initiative, Ukraine has done it and done it impressively.”

Oleksandr Kamyshin, Advisor to the President for Strategic Affairs, told the audience that given more funding Ukraine would be able to increase domestic military production even further, to $20bn. “Ukraine has capacity to build $20bn of military products, but only has $7bn available to it. With more funding, such as that provided recently by the leadership of the Danish Government, we can do much more.”

Troels Lund Poulsen, Minister of Defence of the Kingdom of Denmark, said:  “We started this programme in March. At that time the demand from Ukraine was to be able to produce more of their own weapons, missiles, drones, and Bogdana artillery systems. The first deal from Denmark was to reimburse 18 artillery systems, in July we placed the order, and this weekend they were delivered to the Ukrainian forces. This speed is amazing.  The second thing is that it is also much cheaper to produce the equipment in Ukraine. And the third - when it comes to maintenance and spare parts – of course they are able to do it here locally much easier and quicker than with donated equipment. The goal is to get more European countries to fund local procurement, and local production is the way forward so Ukraine is not dependent on others.” 

General David Petraeus added, “We must encourage economists to raise the possibility of using the 300bln of Russian reserves to fund the production of equipment. There was a skilful use of the interest, now we need to use the principal, and I can’t think of a better use.”

Rustem Umerov concluded the discussion by saying, “People already know about our resilience and bravery, now we need to promote the Ukrainian people’s creativity. Creativity is a virtue of Ukraine, and gave the ability to increase our production facilities, and support our economy.”

Robert Brovdi “Madyar”, Founder and Commander of the special unit of drone aerial systems "Ptakhi Madyara"; Pavlo Palisa, Commander of 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade “Kholodniy Yar” and Ihor Obolienskyi, Commander of the 13th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine "Charter", brought the audience “News from the Front” in the next panel.

Robert Brovdi “Madyar” spoke about some of the issues faced with procuring drones and other equipment: “In Ukraine, most of the necessary components for UAVs are made from ‘sticks’, not on an industrial scale, and not on high-tech lines. However, there is not a single manufacturer in the world that can produce 300-500 winged drones that can travel 900 km deep into enemy territory, carrying 60 kilograms or more of explosives, and cost the equivalent of half a Mercedes - $52,000. They do not exist! And all that is needed in this vein, obviously, is targeted funding and support from manufacturers.”

Pavlo Palisa spoke about the situation in the East of Ukraine, saying, “It is a kind of tyranny of time. At the beginning we hoped it would not be too long. Now we realise it will take much more time than we expected.”

Ihor Obolienskyi added his perspective: “The Kursk operation helped the situation, it relieved our forces, and now the Russians use their weapons and forces to hit their own territory. In front of you there are three officers, two of whom have created new military detachments from scratch, which shows that Ukraine is changing. My colleagues will agree with me that we are absorbing Western practices and tactics to be more efficient on the battleground. In war you need three things to prevail  -  people, weapon and will. Russia’s war against Ukraine breaks stereotypes, more people and weapons does not ensure victory. Attentiveness to each serviceman is key, you have to talk and interact with people, and to help people to self-actualise.”

After a short break, Fareed Zakaria, CNN, hosted a conversation with Mike Pompeo, 70th US Secretary of State on ‘The Future of the US – Ukraine Relationship’. Mike Pompeo commented, “Since I was in Government, the US has shown commitment to Ukraine. Let’s be clear, you cannot get it right for America without a strong victory for Ukraine and NATO. Our peace plan is for Russia to be defeated and for there to be a clear Ukrainian victory. It matters in the economic realm as well as the moral realm..”

Moderated by Anne Applebaum, Pulitzer Prize-winning Historian, Journalist and Commentator, The Atlantic; General  Wesley Clark, Chairman of Wesley K. Clark & Associate, Radosław Sikorski, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland, Sanna Marin, Prime Minister of Finland (2019-2023), Member, YES Board, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, Secretary of National Security and Defence Council and Niall Ferguson, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, then discussed the topic ‘Global Axis of Evil – Do We Have a Strategy?’

During the panel Niall Ferguson opined, “China and the US are superpowers. Ukraine is significantly outgunned by Russia, in terms of GDP, population and spending. Ukraine is outmatched – it is a David and Goliath match, but we cannot be certain of a biblical outcome.”

Radosław Sikorski made the point that the West has some time, that it mustn’t squander, saying, “On preparedness – Britain calculates that Putin needs five years to reconstitute (his military) to pre-war times, and 10 years to threaten NATO. We have time. Ukraine has given us this precious time and we should use it.”

General Wesley Clark added: “There is one way forward; US strategy should be in lockstep with Europe unless it wants to be isolated and on the fringes. There is no Ukraine bypass – Ukraine is not a speedbump, and it is fundamental in dealing with China. Saying, “We support Ukraine to Win’ is not a policy, it is a political statement. A strategy lays out how we will support Ukraine to win.”

Sanna Marin, who recently oversaw Finland joining NATO, said, “Why aren’t democracies acting fast enough? We are the frog in slowly heating water – it is too comfortable to do anything about the situation we are in.  We want the world to continue as we are and align with our way of thinking. This is our backyard, and it is our problem.”

Oleksandr Lytvynenko, agreed, making the point, “The Russia context is not just about Ukraine, it is about the rest of the world. NATO is just one part of the architecture for promoting democratic standards”.

The next panel, on the topic, Will the US support Ukraine in One Year’s Time?, moderated by Kersti Kaljulaid, President of Estonia (2016-2021) Member, YES Board, and Oleksandra Ustinova, Member of Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, included: Donald Bacon, Congressman, US House of Representatives, Jimmy Panetta, Congressman, US House of Representatives, Salud Carbajal, Congressman, US House of Representatives, Jim Costa, Congressman, US House of Representatives and Rob Portman, former US Senator (OH), American Enterprise Institute.

Beginning the panel discussion Kersti Kaljulaid asked, “How can Ukraine steer a path to victory through the Presidential election campaign? How can we ensure victory either way?”

Jim Costa responded, “None of us has a crystal ball, but my answer is, yes, the US will support Ukraine a year from now, the question is to what degree? There was an accord signed between Biden and Zelenskyy for a 10-year commitment, clearly it would be better if that was ratified by Congress.”

Rob Portman stated, “A year from now the rightful borders of Ukraine will be reclaimed, Crimea will be back, Donetsk will be back, and we will all be celebrating. This is my dream. Slava Ukraine! It is important to understand that the vast majority of Republicans and all Democrats voted for the aid package in the Senate, and in the House too, there was also almost a majority of Republicans.”

Salud Carbajal, answering a follow-on question from Kersti Kaljulaid, “Why do we worry so much about what Putin thinks?”, said, “One reason is that he has been irresponsible. It is important to understand that Russia is a gas station with nuclear weapons. They aren’t really this monster we’ve made them out to be. We should not be so mindful of the BS that we hear. We don’t know what the outcome of the election will be, but we should be dogged about accountability on weapons and aid. We need to point out that it is not only the US that is helping Ukraine. We need to remind the American people that EU and NATO have both been even more helpful.”

Asked to give two pieces of advice to the Presidential candidates, Donald Bacon said, “These are the two pieces of advice we should give to the candidates. My nominee (Trump) has moral ambiguity. He should not. He should have moral clarity. Ukraine is fighting for morality here. To the other side I would say, “it’s too little too late”. Let’s assure Ukraine has both quantity and quality of weapons. Give Ukraine what it needs, get rid of the redlines. We do better when we speak with moral clarity..”

Jimmy Panetta, giving his two pieces of advice, said, “If it turns out to be Harris, I’d say put a supplemental package out there – make it clear that we support Ukraine. The second thing I’d say is, “Show up – come here”. I do believe that if you put a supplemental package on the floor it will pass. Overwhelmingly Republicans and Democrats support Ukraine. Especially when they hear the truth about the issues. Going forward we need to make sure there are proper explanations to the people – we need to continue to make sure people like Mike Johnson are informed. That type of explanation is incumbent on us to take to our constituencies.”

Zanny Minton Beddoes, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist hosted a conversation with Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, to elicit his view of the current situation, and delve into his thoughts about the future of the war. Talking about the current Russian military capability, General Kyrylo Budanov said, “Regarding the military, they have pretty much used their reserves. As regards new manufacturing, on some items they have reached quite a serious level, but in other areas they are not doing very well. E.g. The advanced jet fighter SU57 they are so proud of – they will produce only 12 this year. 197 tanks are planned this year – again basically nothing in this situation.” 

Moving on to discuss the Russian economy, General Kyrylo Budanov told the audience that the forecast is that 2025 will begin to be very painful. He made the point that although the Russians are still planning to emerge victorious from this war, they are not sure what to do to make this happen. He also mentioned that the Russian people feel the fatigue of war, saying that it has affected large swathes of population in Russia.

He also spoke about the assistance Russia receives from its allies, particularly North Korea. He said, North Korea is the worst Russian ally, and problem, that Ukraine is facing because the equipment they provide really makes a difference to Ukraine on the frontline. “7-10 days after delivery, hostilities intensify, and there is nothing we can currently do to stop it. The volumes from North Korea are not comparable with anything else. There is a big gap between that and what is provided by other allies.”

Asked to say whether he thinks the West should take Russia’s threats of escalation seriously, General Budanov said, “No. We should not. What are they going to do? Send a SWAT team of 50 to the Middle East? All their troops and equipment are here in Ukraine. Why are we talking about these stories of escalation?”

Fareed Zakaria, Host, CNN then spoke via live video to Jake Sullivan, 28th United States National Security Advisor, about the global security implications of the war. Jake Sullivan said, “We all believed that Ukraine would fall soon after the invasion, yet it has failed. Putin’s plan to wipe it off the map has failed. In April, we thought there would be huge losses on the frontlines yet Ukraine has fortified the lines and pushed back. The line on Pokrovsk is a concern. The advances need to be met with stiff restrictions – they continue to push in the East.” Speaking about the possibility of negotiations, Jake  Sullivan said, “We remain clear, nothing about Ukraine, without Ukraine. It is Ukraine’s territory and sovereignty and it is they who must decide if and when they will negotiate.”

Yuval Harari, Historian and Professor in the Department of History, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, also speaking over live video, discussed the topic, For Humankind’s Survival, Does Ukraine Matter? with Anne Applebaum, Pulitzer Prize-winning Historian, Journalist and Commentator, The Atlantic, saying, “This is the most important conflict since the Cold War, since it calls into question all the norms of the world order. It is like a bully that is allowed to get away with hurting other children in the playground. If Russia is allowed to get away with it, then problem countries will respond.”

Over another video link, Fareed Zakaria, Host, CNN spoke to Eric Schmidt, Co-founder of Schmidt Sciences, former CEO & chairman of Google, about Innovation to win the war in Ukraine and defend the West. “Early on, I thought drones would solve everything”, said Eric Schmidt, “but we need combined solutions; starting with drones and electronic warfare is key to success. Russia has created drone factories in faraway places, to match Ukraine. Russia can churn at scale. Reports suggest Russia matches Ukraine 7 to 1 in tech creation - but Ukraine’s tech is smarter. It is a crowded field with Ukrainian innovations being copied within six months by the Russians.”

In the closing plenary, Oleksander Budko “Teren”, war veteran, public activist; Hanna Vasyk, Junior Sergeant, Armed Forces of Ukraine; Yegor Firsov, Chief Sergeant of the UAV Attack Company, Armed Forces of Ukraine; “Tatarin”, Military, Armed Forces of Ukraine; Serhii Varakin, Commander of the Drone Unit of the 58th brigade, Armed Forces of Ukraine, and Serhiy Chuchula, Major, Head of the Training Division of the 25th brigade, Armed Forces of Ukraine discussed perspectives on victory and the future.

Oleksander Budko “Teren”, said, “As long as we have the Russian Empire we can forget about democracy in this war. It is clear that if Ukraine joins the EU and NATO we can be fighting members of NATO. We can strengthen the borders not just of Ukraine but of the EU and NATO. 

Serhiy Chuchula, made the point, “Citizens in the street are supportive and ask me what I need. There is not a single family that isn’t affected in the war or which doesn’t have family members serving on the front line. We are very much united. We are a closely knit community, if we are not on the front line we try to be as supportive as we can.”

“Tatarin” told the audience, “I am concerned about the other side of de-occupation - cognitive de-occupation. I am concerned about what we will do with people's minds, with their thinking, so that no one in the world in the future will think that Ukraine is somewhere in Russia. This is what we need to fight against. Ukraine is a sovereign state, Crimea is a part of Ukraine, and I want no one anywhere in the world to have the idea that Crimea can be separate from Ukraine.”

Yegor Firsov said: “It is important to learn from mistakes. This is my message from Pokrovsk. We have the Yalta conference and theoretically we should be in Yalta, but for some reason we are in Kyiv. We are close to being in Yalta, but I want to note that we are also close to being in Lviv or Warsaw. This is also a reality that should not be forgotten and should be discussed. We should all do our best to make sure that we do not end up in Lviv, but end up in Yalta.”

Serhii Varakin, made a personal plea to meeting attendees. “To end this war, we all need to work harder. We are very tired, and to make our lives a little easier, we always ask everyone to help us and not to stop. We are getting tired physically and financially, we cannot both fight and invest all the money we have to destroy the enemy. Help us, we will protect all of you, we already know how. You cannot even imagine what we have become in 10 years. We know exactly how to do it, we just lack the capacity.”

Hanna Vasyk noted: “Even if the Russian-Ukrainian war is put on hold, I will not be able to say ‘stop’ to myself. The war itself will not go away. We are now going through a stage of a kind of verification, some kind of deterrence mechanisms that all countries of the civilised world want to develop. All those mechanisms that were developed after the Second World War are no longer working. And the answer to the common question ‘When will the Third World War begin?’ is, in my opinion, that it has already begun.”

Timothy Snyder, , Richard C. Levin Professor of History and Global Affairs, Yale University, shared the main points coming from this meeting:

“1. We need to be more unpredictable

2. We need to be faster

3. We need to not let the enemy set the rules of the war

4. We need to listen to the Ukrainians

5. We need to invest more of our money into more successfully Ukrainian enterprises

6. We can’t negotiate with the other side until they know they are losing.”

Tamila Tasheva, Permanent Representative of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea added: “ When I am asked how peace would be – it should be fair, it has to be comprehensive and it will only become that once we have reclaimed our territories. This is a matter of security for our state. This is a matter of justice for those millions of people who live in the occupied territories.”

Closing the 20th Annual YES Meeting, Aleksander Kwaśniewski, President of Poland (1995-2005), Chairman of the Board of YES, said, “This is our third meeting during war time. This is our 20th anniversary, we knew when we started this that Ukraine's future was in the West, with Europe. Our belief hasn’t changed. We know that Ukraine will be safe as part of the EU & NATO.” 

Aleksande Kwaśniewski told the audience that his key takeaways from the Meeting, that he encourages all attendees to take back to their countries, were:

•     Don’t be afraid of escalation.
•     What does Ukraine need now? Money, military and political support.
•     Ukrainians are a very special nation – we have to admire their creativity.
•     This country works; they are serious & determined partners.

The partners of the event were: Google, Kyivstar and The International Renaissance Foundation.

More news about the 20th YES Annual Meeting you may find at our website yes-ukraine.org

Photos are available here and on the website  yes-ukraine.org/en/photo-and-video  

Videos from panels are available here www.youtube.com/@PinchukFoundation