The First Day Summary of the 20th YES Annual Meeting – THE NECESSITY TO WIN

The 20th Annual Meeting of Yalta European Strategy (YES) – THE NECESSITY TO WIN was held on September 13 – 14, 2024 in Kyiv. Over 700 leading politicians, diplomats, businessmen, servicemen of the armed forces of Ukraine, veterans, civil activists, and experts, from more than 30 countries, took part in the conference organised by YES, in partnership with the Victor Pinchuk Foundation.

During the first day of the YES meeting, speakers and participants discussed topics including: Europe’s Moment of Truth; Ukraine’s Role for Creating a Safe World; In the Heads of Western Leaders – What Stands in the Way of Doing All That’s Needed; Why We Must Defeat this Enemy and Win or Lose – Imagining the World After. 

Victor Pinchuk, founder and member of the Board of Yalta European Strategy, businessman and philanthropist, opened the 20the YES meeting by asking guests to remember the fallen Ukrainian heroes: “Don’t forget what happens on the front while we speak. The West understands what it means if Ukraine loses but there is a disconnect between what is understood and what is done. During the 20th Anniversary of YES, we will brainstorm how we bridge the gap between the disconnect”. 

“To win or not to be. This is not a question; it is a terrible, brutal dilemma for Ukraine, for Europe, for the entire civilized world. It has to be under the skin of all leaders. To win or not to be”, said Victor Pinchuk.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a rallying statement to attendees and all Western politicians. “This month, I have a meeting with President Biden planned. I will present him with the Victory Plan. A system of interconnected decisions that will give Ukraine sufficient strength – enough strength to put this war on a course to peace. Wars of aggression such as Russia’s war against Ukraine can end fairly in several ways – either the occupying army is pushed out or diplomacy ensures that the country’s real independence is preserved and it is freed from occupation. In both cases, Ukraine needs a strong position. The United States can help with this.”

In the first session “Europe’s Moment of Truth,” a keynote and panel moderated by Zanny Minton Beddoes, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist; Alar Karis, President of the Republic of Estonia, Gabriel Attal, Former Prime Minister of the French Republic; Andrii Sybiha, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine; Radosław Sikorski, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland and Gabrielius Landsbergis, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania, participants discussed the need for greater Western support and stronger policies to win in fighting the Russian aggression. 

During the keynote Alar Karis, President of the Republic of Estonia, said: “History shows us that negotiating with a dictator is dangerous. We need more weapons. There are red lines that we think we should not cross, but Russia crosses red lines every day. Let’s keep our moral compass intact and enforce our own red lines.”

Gabriel Attal, Former Prime Minister of the French Republic: “France supports you and your right to defend yourselves. I believe if we slow down, we admit weakness in the face of Russia. Europe is mortal, and War is a test of truth. Ukraine stands for freedom and Ukraine is European. By history, culture & geography. It has consistently chosen democracy over freedom.” 

Gillian Tett, columnist and Editorial Board Member, Financial Times then moderated a panel titled, “In the Heads of Western Leaders - What stands in the way of doing all that’s needed”, including Timothy D Snyder, Richard C. Levin Professor of History and Global Affairs, Yale University, General David Petraeus, Partner and Chairman of the Global Institute, KKR, Kajsa Ollongren, Minister of Defence of the Netherlands (2022-2024), Member, YES Board, Annette Kroeber-Riel, Vice President of Government Affairs and Public Policy at Google in Europe and Olha Stefanishyna, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine - Minister of Justice of Ukraine and asked the hard hitting question “Why the West's support is faltering and could this change.”

Professor of History and Global Affairs, Yale University, Timothy Snyder, said: “There is a moral issue, we took a long time to show we were on the right side but often to be on the right side you have to win. Added to that is reflective narcissism, and we often start from the premise that Ukraine is a problem, rather than understanding that Ukraine is solving a lot of the problems.” 

General David Petraeus said: “The US is providing a lot of support, but we have been too cautious. We have been dragging our feet. I hope that the UK PM & US President meetings this week will suggest more support & restrictions lifted.” 

Kajsa Ollongren, YES Board Member reiterated: “We must prioritise this war. We need to cooperate and build unity. If our security is threatened then we need to do more. Many leaders are compelled to say what they will not do. I think we should stress what more we should do.” 

During the third panel discussion focused on ‘Ukraine’s Role for Creating a Safe World’, Andrii Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said, “It is necessary to start with the truth. All the structures of security that exist in the world don’t work. None of these have stopped the biggest war since World War Two. It is difficult to imagine new structures. But if we are talking about the future structures of security, Ukraine is going to be central to them. We can see this in the UK, US and Netherland security agreements. We live in new times – we cannot put our faith in papers, only in real actions.” 

Answering the question, “what is Ukraine’s role in creating a safer world?”, former UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson said, “Ukrainian victory will show the world that the good guys can, and will, win. That is the most powerful message the world can hear. It will have an effect on stability, and send a message of hope, around the world. Empires decline, and Ukraine has chosen that it is over. Ukraine is choosing freedom.”

Former United States Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo concurred: “We need to show that countries can trust the US in protecting the West. If we do this then we demonstrate that we hold onto our values. Can we provide support when the going is hard, not just when it is easy? You cannot walk away and not prevail, and then try to uphold values. I believe a safer world is possible.”

During a fifth panel, Timothy Snyder, Professor of History and Global Affairs, Yale University, spoke to a panel of musicians, poets, writers and service people about why it is important that the enemy is defeated. 

Stanislav Aseyev, Serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said: “As a writer and serviceman, I see that there is a lack of understanding of the war outside Ukraine. Everything that is obvious to Ukrainians is absolutely not obvious in the West. The function of a writer is to convey this obviousness to people who perceive this war as just another conflict in the world.”

Serhii Zhadan, Writer, Musician, Serviceman of the National Guard of Ukraine. “Culture is an important marker of the war itself. It is a marker which is more important than its institutions and distances. Russian politicians want to destroy the very notion of what Ukraine is and what it actually means. This is a war of values. We have to win this.” 

Oleg Sentsov, Filmmaker, Writer, Serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: “Putin can be defeated. Putin must be defeated. And we are already doing it: we were given two weeks, and we have been holding out for more than two years. But some of our partners are afraid of defeating Russia, afraid that after that it will break up into many small, uncontrolled states, which carries certain economic risks, social risks, and waves of migration. And most importantly, they fear that they will lose control of the nuclear button. And this fear, the fear of Putin, is holding back our partners, they give us so many weapons so that we don't lose, not so much so that we win.”

The panel concluded that maintaining Ukrainian culture is vital to counter Russian aggression.  

In a conversation hosted by Wolfgang Ischinger, President of the Foundation Council of the Munich Security Conference Foundation; Rebecca Lissner, Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor to the Vice President of the White House, spoke about US policy ahead of the US elections. “The Vice President has shown that again and again the US will stand by Ukraine. The nature of the fight has shifted, we have responded.” 

Following this, a panel moderated by Niall Ferguson, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and involving Ihor Zhovkva, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Condoleezza Rice, 66th U.S. Secretary of State, Francis Fukuyama, Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow, Stanford University, Gabrielius Landsbergis, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania, Lindsey Graham, United States Senator and Moritz Schularick, President, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, considered the question, “Win or Lose – Imagining the World After”.

Lindsey Graham started by saying: “Putin’s Russia should be seen as state-based terrorism. I want to make sure that China sees that Putin made a mistake, that they don’t think they can take Taiwan. ”

Francis Fukuyama concurred: “There are two scenarios which could come out of the US elections, these will have huge impacts on the support Ukraine receives. Trump being elected is not implausible.”    

Gabrielius Landsbergis: “Putin is aggressive and we cannot predict how he will act in the future. But we have the capabilities of stopping him now, so we should. Scenario planning is often wrong, so we should act now.”  

Ihor Zhovkva was firm in his answer about variables or options: ”I can only talk about one scenario – when Ukraine wins. With respect to foreigners, you have missed your chances to act against Russia in the past. Time plays into Putin’s hand. We aren’t demanding anything that would undermine your country.”

“German military stocks are low, and Russia can produce supplies fast. We are far from committing the necessary resources to Ukraine; we are doing more on diesel subsidies than we are in Ukraine”, said Moritz Schularick. 

Condoleezza Rice summarised the conversation, saying: “We have to be careful about believing what is said. There are a lot of “I wills” but nothing is ever done. We need to work with Ukraine to see what the future looks like. We need to understand our role and what we can do to encourage investment in Ukraine.”

The partners of the event were: Google, Kyivstar and The International Renaissance Foundation.

More news about the 20th YES Annual Meeting you may find at our website yes-ukraine.org/

Photos will be available at yes-ukraine.org

Videos from panels will be available here www.youtube.com/@PinchukFoundation