Victor Pinchuk Foundation hosted a panel ‘Security Guarantees and Peace - What Will Work and What Will Voters Support?’ during the YES Special Gathering in Kyiv

On 24 February 2025, the Victor Pinchuk Foundation and Yalta European Strategy (YES) held a discussion ‘Security Guarantees and Peace - What Will Work and What Will Voters Support?’ during the YES Special Gathering  in Kyiv “Three Years — Time to Win” dedicated to the third anniversary of Russia’s brutal and unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Politicians and experts discussed strategies for securing Ukraine in a changing world.

Gabriel Attal, Former Prime Minister of the French Republic, Chairman of the Presidential Majority Group, said: “Talking about Ukraine, we are talking about Europe. My generation has only known the European Union, the single currency, enlargement. We thought we were experiencing the beginning of something, now we wonder if we are seeing the end of something.” 

“The good news is that in France, voters still support Ukraine. In a poll this weekend, more than 70% of French citizens said we should continue helping Ukraine, and even  increase our help to Ukraine.” 

“The question is, ‘what security guarantees?’ We can only answer that question when we have a peace agreement that Ukraine can accept. In the meantime, I think many people agree that NATO membership, Article 5, is the easiest and most efficient security guarantee.  But I'm always surprised that EU membership is not mentioned. The EU is a political project, and we have to push Ukraine’s EU membership as a security guarantee. My group of MPs in Parliament, has just voted to ask the French government and the EU institutions to accelerate the process for Ukraine's EU membership.”, added Gabriel Attal.

Miapetra Kumpula-Natri, Member of Parliament of Finland; Vice-President of PACE, commented: “The European Union has been supportive, but it's really time to double-check if we want to be a strong continent. On 24th February 2022, Finnish support to join NATO was around 20-22%. When we applied on 18th of May, the opinion polls were 85%. This is because we were speaking to our people about what membership really meant. So I call for countries to double-check the opinion of their citizens. Talk to your citizens about human rights. Talk about reality. Are they not in support of returning the deported children? Are they ready to forget the rules of war and the international order? 

“The time for talk is over. We have been promising for three years and now it is time to deliver.”

Alex Sobel, Vice-Chair of the British Group of the Inter-Parliamentary Union, and Chair of Labour Friends of Ukraine and All-Party Parliamentary Group on Ukraine, asked by Gideon Rachman, Columnist, Financial Times, about Britain's willingness to commit troops to a peacekeeping operation, and whether if the US did not agree to provide a ‘backstop’ it would mean that Britain and France would not send troops to Ukraine, said, “We need new ways of dealing with the world. There is a battle of whether this new world is a democracy or autocracy. For democracy to win, we need to see democratic values, human rights at its centre..”

Carl Bildt, asked for his opinion on the idea of a back-stop provided by the US, said; 

“We (Sweden and Finland) are now members of NATO. We are happy with that, but for a generation we were prepared to defend our territories without a backstop from the US. We were not dependent upon American military support. Yet Finland was fairly defensible, Sweden was fairly defensible. Now, we are better with the backstop, but I wouldn't make everything entirely dependent upon that. It is desirable to have the Americans there, no question about it. But if the Americans back away, I'm not certain we Europeans should back away as well.”

Pavel Fischer, Chair of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defense and Security of the Senate of the Czechia, said, 

“If you keep explaining to people what is at stake, people will support you. This is my lesson as we consider what will work and what voters will support. If you keep making the point that without security there is no prosperity, voters will support you. We need to repeat the message that without bold investment in our defence, there is no future for our societies.”

Brendan Simms, Director, Centre for Geopolitics, University of Cambridge, stated: “Immediately after WWI there was a question of security guarantees there would be. The French wanted a British guarantee, and the British said we'll only give that guarantee if the Americans guarantee that guarantee. And so this becomes a dance and in the end, the whole thing unravels.” 

“I question whether forward deployment of ground troops is the best option. Providing a guarantee in terms of air defence or a no fly zone, seems to much more closely represent the added value from the UK and the broader European side”

“There is a constituency in the US which has got it into its head, that to be conservative means being pro-Russian. I can keep two things separate in my head. One is the state of Western European societies, which one can argue with, and the other is whether or not Ukraine has been unjustly attacked, which is perfectly plain.”

Alexander Kwasniewksi, former President of the Republic of Poland (1995-2005), Chair, YES Board, closed the YES Special Gathering  in Kyiv “Three Years — Time to Win, with the following remarks, 

“We know that this [Ukraine] is probably the existential issue for all of us today and in the future.”

“Of course we want to have peace, but peace cannot be a frozen war, it must be based on our values. So that is my appeal, especially to our American friends. Understand that Russia, and Putin, want to have the whole of Ukraine in their hands. That is not a place for compromise. That is not a place for some deal.”

“We Democrats, we Europeans, are fighting against ruthless power, lies, and effective propaganda. To fight these behaviours, we have to connect with our values, because that is our power, our moral advantage.”

Europe must be united. If we work together, we have enough power to win. If we want to see a better future for the world, Ukraine has to win.”

Photos are available here

Video is available here