The Europe's security depends on Ukraine and action to stop Putin must be taken now - YES Board's article for 'European Pravda'

The Ukraine war is overshadowed by Iran and other crises. Isn't Ukraine’s situation bad but somewhat stable, isn't Europe doing more than it used to?

This is dangerous for Europe. Our security depends on Ukraine’s defense. This cornerstone is under savage attack. It is now only in Europe’s hands to protect it. We would fail to do so at our peril. We can do it. Will we?

We visited Kyiv last week after an unprecedented Russian drone attack destroyed residential buildings. At the front, Russia moves ahead, though at huge cost and snail's pace. Relentless Russian innovation to kill with ever new tactics is countered only by Ukrainian innovation to defend.

Our conclusion from speaking to officials, experts and military leaders is:

There is a clear and imminent danger for Europe if we don’t act more decisively now.

But quick action can contain the threat in Ukraine.

Ukrainian soldiers hold the front with courage and innovation. But while Ukrainians will never stop resisting, without more military support Ukraine can lose more territory. More cities might be captured.

This would put over 500 million European citizens at risk. The Kremlin wants to change borders beyond Ukraine in its attempt to restore its sphere of influence.

It wants to destabilize the EU, which it calls decadent and impotent. If Russia wins in Ukraine, they will not only multiply their hybrid attacks that already now do real damage in Europe.

We can not rule out that they will also prepare to attack NATO and EU countries militarily. For this, they will exploit people and resources from conquered Ukrainian territories.

Russia’s success would also boost those who aim to destroy Europe from within.

Radicals from AfD to Reform to Rassemblement National would seem proven right: Be careful confronting Russia.

A Ukrainian defeat would weaken Europe geopolitically. Now, Ukraine’s resistance takes up Kremlin resources.

That prevented Russia from propping up Syria's Assad or help Iran's regime in the amount they might have otherwise. A Russia buoyed by victory in Ukraine will be free to support bad actors worldwide – against Europe.

Also globally it will seem clear on whose side historical momentum is: those who attack to conquer and spit on rules. Democracies will have failed for everyone to see, in a case where aggressor and victim are completely clear, and happening right in Europe.

In mid-summer Brussels, Paris, London and Berlin, budget and social problems might seem our worst danger. But Europe’s physical safety is not a law of nature. Weak armies, populists hellbent on disrupting, and a deadly enemy next doors are a destructive mix.

Now is the time to act. Or we will regret to not have given more in summer 2025.

Because, and that is the good news from the conversations we had in Kyiv, we can do it.

Ukraine has capacity to produce itself much of the weapons it needs urgently. The unused potential is US$10-15 billion and growing.

Money to produce at full capacity right away can help block Russia from making bigger gains in 2025. True, some weapons are available only from the US, but Ukrainian production can solve most urgent problems.

We Europeans can do this ourselves, if the US stops giving money and arms to Ukraine. We can do it even if US$200 billion of Russian frozen assets will not be used (that would be a good way forward, but some countries object).

Here are the numbers:

Additional US$15 billion right now to fully use Ukraine’s production capacity in 2025 are question of political will.

The mid-term is also eminently doable: The war costs ca. US$100 billion, effectively covered by international support, while Ukraine raises sufficient amount of taxes to finance its regular non-military spending (such as pensions and salaries to doctors, and keep the government operational).

Of this international support, almost US$40 billion per year have come from the US.

This, Europe would have to take over. But to allow Ukraine to stop Russia, needed are additional US$30-40 billion per year for Ukrainian arms production and acquisition on the market.

So instead of US$40 billion p.a. until now, Europe would have to provide US$110-120 billion.

These US$110-120 billion are about 0,6% of the GDP of European NATO members (US$20 trillion). Until now, European NATO members gave about 0,2% of their GDP to Ukraine (bilaterally and through the EU).

The raise from 0,2% to 0,6% can be financed within the anyway planned increase of defense spending for NATO members (5% goal).

If Europe gives 0,6% of its GDP to Ukraine, this can stop Russia in Ukraine and hamper Russian preparation for attacking Europe.

It will buy time to build mid-term deterrence: to grow the European defense industry, devise and implement security guarantees for Ukraine, fast-track Ukrainian EU integration.

Such European decisiveness will also signal to the US: We don’t free-ride but take our fate into our own hands.

Are we up to the task?

One of our interlocutors in Kyiv said, Ukrainians are now prepared to die every night, and prepared to go to work every morning. If we don’t want our children to be at risk of dying every night, we better go to work and give Ukraine the tools to stop Russia.

When at the NATO summit members commit to 5%, Europeans must make clear they will do for Ukraine what is needed – in all our most vital interest.

The authors of this article are members of the Supervisory Board of the Yalta European Strategy (YES):

Carl Bildt, Prime Minister of Sweden (1991–1994) and Minister for Foreign Affairs (2006–2014);

Aleksander Kwaśniewski, President of Poland (1995–2005);

Sanna Marin, Prime Minister of Finland (2019–2023);

Kajsa Ollongren, Minister of Defense of the Netherlands (2022–2024).

Source: "European Pravda"